美联储降息25个基点

作者: -

市场分析


消息方面在两天的货币政策会议后,美联储宣布降息25个基点,为10年来首次降息符合市场预期,但是,正如美联储主席鲍威尔一再强调的“我们降息的目标是支持经济扩张”,短期内不存在迫切继续降息理由;而市场对今年多次降息的预期落空,没有听到利于市场的鸽派言论,美股三大股指均跌超1%。好的方面是巴西央行意外降息50个基点,香港金管局则降息25个基点,对中国央行来说预计要等到8月15日MLF到期的时间点才会看到央行应对措施,届时7月经济和金融数据均已出炉,这些数据决定央行是否要跟随降息的关键因素。其它方面第十二轮中美经贸高级别磋商结束,双方讨论了中方根据国内需要增加自美农产品采购以及美方将为采购创造良好条件,并将于9月在美国举行下一轮经贸高级别磋商。市场方面大盘问题在成交量无法放大,体现在盘中就是指数虽然上涨,但活跃度明显不够,热点也不太突出,博弈需控制好仓位。

On the news side, after two days of monetary policy meeting, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, the first rate cut in 10 years in line with market expectations, but as Federal Reserve Chairman Powell repeatedly stressed that "our goal is to support economic expansion", there is no urgent reason to continue to cut interest rates in the short term; and the market for more than this year; Expectations for the second interest rate cut were disappointed, and there was no market-friendly dove talk. All three major U.S. stock indexes fell by more than 1%. The good news is that the Brazilian central bank accidentally cut interest rates by 50 basis points, while the Hong Kong Monetary Authority cut interest rates by 25 basis points. For the Central Bank of China, it is expected that it will not see the central bank's response until the expiration of MLF on August 15. By then, economic and financial data have been released, which determine whether the central bank will follow the key factors of interest rate reduction. The twelfth round of high-level economic and trade consultation between China and the United States concluded. The two sides discussed China's increasing procurement of agricultural products from the United States in accordance with domestic needs and that the United States would create good conditions for procurement. The next round of high-level economic and trade consultation will be held in September in the United States. On the market side, the problem of large-scale trading volume can not be enlarged, which is reflected in the fact that although the index is rising, the activity is obviously not enough, and the hot spots are not very prominent, so the game needs to control the position well.



大盘预测

空间预测

图片1.png

昨日上证指数低开下挫,全天低位震荡,最终收出实体为11.89个点的小阴线,报收于2932.51点,跌0.67%。股指开始调整走势。股指短期反弹的第二目标位R2:2962.88点,昨日文中提示上涨到达目标区,重视高抛,当天得到市场的验证本次回调后,依然具有少仓低吸的机会,耐心等待止跌位置的出现。板块方面,冷链物流、医药电商板块表现活跃,5G、芯片等盘中异动。板块依然处于快速轮动中,操作忌追涨。地产、保险、建筑建材等板块领跌

Yesterday, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index opened low and fell, oscillating all day low, eventually yielding a small negative line of 11.89 points, closing at 2932.51 points, down 0.67%. The stock index began to adjust its trend. The second target of short-term rebound of stock index is R2:2962.88. Yesterday's article indicated that the stock index rose to the target area and attached importance to high selling, which was verified by the market on that day. After this call-back, there is still a chance to reduce the number of stores and low suction, waiting patiently for the stop-fall position to appear. Plate, cold chain logistics, medical e-commerce plate active, 5G, chips and other disks in motion. Plate is still in rapid rotation, operation do not chase up. Real estate, insurance, building materials and other sectors led the decline.

图片2.png

昨日创业板指全天弱势震荡,最终收出小阴星,报收于1570.39点,跌0.62%。股指波段反弹第二目标R2:1589.90点,周二反弹到目标区,重视高抛的机会。昨日股指出现阴线,目前来看调整的空间有限,注意调整后的少仓参与机会。沪深指数与创业板指继续分化,均处于上涨后开始调整的阶段,耐心等待调整后的机会,避免盲目交易。

Yesterday's GEM refers to all-day vulnerable shocks, and eventually receives Xiao Yinxing, closing at 1570.39 points, down 0.62%. Stock index band rebound second target R2:1589.90 points, rebounded to target area on Tuesday, attaching importance to the opportunity of high throw. Yesterday, the stock pointed out the negative line. At present, there is limited room for adjustment. We should pay attention to the opportunities of short positions after adjustment. The Shanghai-Shenzhen index and GEM continue to differentiate, both in the stage of adjustment after rising, waiting patiently for the opportunity after adjustment to avoid blind trading.



时间预测

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根据操盘周期表,上证指数5分钟K线图上,今日容易出现拐点的时间为10:2511:30、13:55附近。

According to the trading cycle table, on the 5-minute K-line chart of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, the time when inflection points are prone to occur today is around 10:25, 11:30 and 13:55.


热点板块

其它

消息方面国常会表示促进商品消费和文化旅游的措施,确定加大力度落实就业优先政策,市场方面美联储一次鹰派降息弱于预期。

On the news side, China often expressed measures to promote commodity consumption and cultural tourism, and decided to intensify efforts to implement employment priority policies. On the market side, a hawkish interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve was weaker than expected.



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